If you put any money on my first few picks of the college bowl season, I apologize. It’ll get better. I mean, the law of averages comes into play, right?
In the first weekend, I went against my own rule of never picking against the Pac-12 … and lost both the Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Arizona over New Mexico) and the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Utah over BYU), although both were pretty close. Close only matters in slow dancing and grenades, as my dad used to say …
OK, on to bigger and hopefully better picks! It’s round three and we’ve got the top dogs — well, actually, Sooners and Tigers and Spartans, and Tide (Crimson) — playing for a spot the Jan. 11 national title game.
Thursday, Dec. 31
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Atlanta, Ga.)
Matchup: (18) Houston vs. (9) Florida State
Time, channel: 9 a.m., ESPN
The skinny: There’s a lot to like about Houston’s Cougars (12-1). They’ve lost just once this year, a three-point heartbreaker to a good UConn team, but the mid-major probably wouldn’t be playing for a title even if it went undefeated, with a schedule that featured nobody in the top 10. They’ve got a fairly balanced offense for a program that generally throws the ball almost as much as Mike Leach’s teams do, with do-it-all QB Gary Ward Jr. and RB Kenneth Farrow available after a leg injury put him out for two games. But the Seminoles (10-2) are going to be tough, with former backup QB Sean Maguire looking solid in the past several weeks in place of do-it-all star Everett Golson. Oh, and the most underrated running back in the country may be Dalvin Cook, he of the 1,658 yards and 18 TDs.
My pick: Florida State, 35-27
Capital One Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
Matchup: (4) Oklahoma vs. (1) Clemson
Time, channel: 1 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: How do you pick against a No. 1 team? Looking at most national polls, plenty of folks outside the Carolinas are doing exactly that. It’s hard to not give Clemson (13-0) the edge with Davey O’Brien Award winner DeShaun Watson leading the way. But Oklahoma (11-1) is favored to win, in part because of how they looked in the past few weeks, beating three ranked foes in a row. This one may go into overtime.
My pick: Oklahoma, 27-24
Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas)
Matchup: (3) Michigan State vs. (2) Alabama
Time, channel: 5 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: In the second national semifinal, the ludicrously lucky Spartans of Michigan State (three-point winners against Michigan) bring their one-blemish record (12-1) against Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide’s one-blemish record (12-1). Sparty’s QB Connor Cook got banged up late in the campaign and didn’t look great against Iowa, but it’s hard to find a better quarterback in the nation. On the other side, Alabama tailback Derrick Henry looks unstoppable, with nearly 2,000 yards rushing and 23 trips to the end zone. Another classic-in-the-making.
My pick: Alabama, 31-24
Friday, Jan. 1
Outback Bowl (Tampa, Fla.)
Matchup: (13) Northwestern vs. (23) Tennessee
Time, channel: 9 a.m, ESPN2
The skinny: The Volunteers of Tennessee (8-4) have had a tumultuous season, losing some real heartbreakers — all four of their losses were by seven points or less — before running roughshod over the last five foes. Northwestern (10-2) has a couple of impressive wins on their resume (Wisconsin, Stanford), but they got obliterated in its two biggest games against Michigan and Iowa. I like the Vols here.
My pick: Tennessee, 28-24
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (Orlando, Fla.)
Matchup: (14) Michigan vs. (19) Florida
Time, channel: 10 a.m., ABC
The skinny: A premier matchup of teams with absolutely Jekyll-and-Hyde kinds of seasons. Florida (10-3) has looked like world-beaters in wins against then-No. 3 Ole Miss and playing both No. 2-Alabama and then-No. 6 LSU close, but then looked awful in a loss to Florida State and in meager wins against Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt. Under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (9-3) absolutely mauled most foes on their schedule before a botched punt led to loss to Michigan State and capped the regular season with a forgettable (42-13) loss to Ohio State. Which team will show up? On either side?
My pick: Florida, 31-30
BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.)
Matchup: (8) Notre Dame vs. (7) Ohio State
Time, channel: 10 a.m., ESPN
The skinny: Some folks think defending national champion Ohio State (11-1) may be one of the best four in the country. Their lone loss was a three-point defeat to Michigan State, which the Buckeyes followed up with a whupping of Michigan. OSU tailback Ezekiel Elliott is a game-changer, even if the Buckeyes are a mess (generally) at quarterback. Notre Dame (10-2) has a pair of two-point losses on their resume, to then-No. 12 (now No. 1) Clemson and Stanford. The Fighting Irish are tough, but the Buckeyes are tougher.
My pick: Ohio State, 35-30
Rose Bowl Game (Pasadena, Calif.)
Matchup: (6) Stanford vs. (5) Iowa
Time, channel: 2 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: One win. Four points. That’s all Iowa needed to be playing with the big boys. Now, the 12-1 Hawkeyes are stuck playing in the best runner-up matchup in the country against a sometimes spectacular Stanford Cardinal (10-2) team. Stanford lost a regrettable opener to Northwestern and a two-pointer to Oregon, but otherwise has impressively bumped off ranked foes Notre Dame, UCLA and USC (twice). My gut tells me to pick Pac-12, my copy editor (an Iowa native) tells me to hawk the Hawkeyes.
My pick: Stanford, 31-28
Allstate Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, La.)
Matchup: (16) Oklahoma State vs. (12) Ole Miss
Time, channel: 5:30 p.m, ESPN
The skinny: The matchmakers in college football hit the proverbial nail on the head this year, lining up some great parallel storylines. In the Sugar Bowl, it’s a pair of teams that seemed destined to break into college football’s upper echelon before faltering quickly. Ole Miss’ Rebels (9-3) looked formidable before losing two of three in the middle-of-the-season stretch before redeeming themselves with wins versus LSU and Mississippi State. Oklahoma State was ranked No. 6 in the country and eyeing a spot in the national debate before dropping back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma. I lean toward Ole Miss because of its tough schedule (and it’s the only team to beat Alabama this year … IN Alabama).
My pick: Ole Miss, 38-17
Saturday, Jan. 2
TaxSlayer Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Matchup: Penn State vs. Georgia
Time, channel: 9 a.m., ESPN
The skinny: Georgia (9-3), which finished just behind Florida for the SEC East crown, has a balanced offense and hasn’t given up more than 17 points in their past five games. Penn State (7-5) comes in losing three in a row and hasn’t beaten a team they weren’t supposed to all season.
My pick: Georgia, 38-21
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tenn.)
Matchup: Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Time, channel: 12:20 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: Arkansas (7-5) has one of the best mascots in the country in the Razorbacks. Kansas State’s Wildcats (6-6) have perhaps the best uniforms around, going purple and silver and a super-cool cat logo on the helmet. Other than that, I’m going to have a hard time getting interested in this one. K-State was terrifically underwhelming in the middle of the season, losing six in a row (albeit to some pretty good teams) before getting bowl-eligible with wins against Iowa State, Kansas and West Virginia (barely). Arkansas beat Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee, and played Alabama close. I like the Razorbacks in this one.
My pick: Arkansas, 42-27
Valero Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Texas)
Matchup: (15) Oregon vs. (11) TCU
Time, channel: 3:45 p.m, ESPN
The skinny: This may be the most high-scoring game in college bowl history. I hope so. Leading the way for Texas Christian (10-2) is all-around superstar QB Trevone Boykin, he of the 3,575 passing yards and 31 TDS, and 612 rushing yards and nine more scores. Former Eastern Washington standout Vernon Adams Jr. leads Oregon’s Ducks (9-3) into San Antonio with six wins in a row, including victories over Stanford and USC. Adams Jr. amassed nearly 2,500 yards and 25 TDs passing even after missing three games and playing only sparingly in another. TCU has the cool mascot (Horned Frogs!) but Oregon plays in the Pac-12 … and you don’t pick against the Pac-12.
My pick: Oregon, 68-55
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl (Phoenix, Ariz.)
Matchup: West Virginia vs. Arizona State
Time, channel: 7:15 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: Arizona State (6-6) plays in the Pac-12, West Virginia (7-5) does not. Also the game is in Arizona. ’Nuff said.
My pick: Arizona State, 45-19
Monday, Jan. 11
College Football Playoff National Championship, (Glendale, Ariz.)
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Alabama (maybe)
Time, channel: 5:30 p.m., ESPN
The skinny: In the title game, all past history, pedigree and “momentum” is out the window. In these, the art of fiction (to paraphrase baseball writing great Red Smith) simply dies. Trick plays, impossible catches, game-changing blunders … they’re the norm. Good luck picking this one.
My pick: Alabama, 34-20
Reach Sequim Gazette editor Michael Dashiell at editor@sequimgazette.com.
